Press Chart to enlarge.Πέμπτη, Φεβρουαρίου 15, 2007
MASS INDEX-Educational sample chart
Press chart to enlarge and view sample for the Mass Index.==============================================
Ταλαντωτής με ιδιότητα, να παρέχει σαφείς ενδείξεις αναστροφής της κύριας τάσης των τιμών. Εντοπίζει το φαινόμενο μάλιστα, λίγες ημέρες πριν πραγματοποιηθεί.
Πιθανή ένδειξη αναστροφής είναι το φούσκωμα του Mass 25 ημερών Φουσκώνει όταν διασπά ανοδικά την γραμμή του 27 .Όταν στην συνέχεια υποχωρήσει κάτω από το 26,5 δίνεται η ένδειξη αναστροφής της τιμής.
Μπορεί να έλθει μετά από ανοδική ή καθοδική τάση τιμών ή ακόμα και μετά από ζώνη συναλλαγών (ατασική).Η ένδειξη της κατεύθυνσης έρχεται με την εξέταση της κλίσης του κινητού μέσου των 9 ημερών του.
Την ημέρα που διασπάται καθοδικά το 26,5 εξετάζουμε την κλίση που έχει ο ΜΑ9ημ και παίρνουμε σήμα αναστροφής, δηλαδή κίνηση της τάσης τιμών προς την αντίθετη κατεύθυνση.
Όταν ο δείκτης κορυφώνει πάνω από το 27 και δεν διασπά καθοδικά το 26,5 ,τότε αναμένεται προέκταση της υφιστάμενης τάσης και το σήμα μετατίθεται για την στιγμή διάσπασης του 26,5.
Όσο μεγαλύτερο διάστημα μείνει ο δείκτης πάνω από το 27 τόσο πιο μεγάλο θεωρείται το ενδεχόμενο να πλησιάζουμε προς περιοχή εξάντλησης της τάσης τιμών.
Για άνοδο είναι πολύ αξιόπιστο ενώ για πτώση για να σιγουρευτούμε 100% πρέπει να διασπάσει καθοδικά τον 30άρη και μετά από μεγάλες περιόδους ανόδου και τον 45άρη
Ftse-20 Analysis
Με το ζόρι διακρίνεται το σημερινό κεράκι - σταυρουδάκι του εικοσάρη.Παρ' όλα αυτά όμως πέρασε με χάσμα πάνω απο το πρώτο εμπόδιο των 2540 και πιθανόν να κάνει άλλο ένα άλμα αύριο και πάνω απο το 2570/75.
Μετά το πέρασμα του κεριού όπως είχα γράψει της Δευτέρας είμαστε long.
Τα άλματα δεν βγαίνουν βέβαια πάντα σε καλό αλλά εδώ θα είμαστε να δούμε την περαιτέρω συμπεριφορά του μεγάλου μας δείκτη.
Η ΕΤΕ πάλι καλή.
Η ALPHA πάνω απο 24.50 και πρέπει και να το διατηρήσει.
Ο Ογδοντάρης πάνω απο 900 οριακά και οφείλει και αυτός να το διατηρήσει στο χρονικό απαραίτητο φίλτρο.
Τρίτη, Φεβρουαρίου 13, 2007
Ftse-20 Analysis
Daily chart same as yesterday's one-Press chart to enlarge.==================================================================
Έκτη μέρα και αντίδραση σήμερα όπως έγραψα χτές.
Να δούμε πόσο θα διαρκέσει.
Ενα κερί σήμερα σχεδόν ισομεγέθες με το χτεσινό με άνοιγμα και κλείσιμο αντίστοιχα στα χτεσινά κλείσιμο και άνοιγμα αντιστρόφως.
Περίπου ίδιος όγκος με τον χτεσινό.
Η ΕΤΕ εξακολουθεί να είναι καλή μετά το σώσιμο του 38.50.
Η ALPHA όχι ακόμα με το πρόβλημα στο 24.50.
Ο ΔΤΡ έχει ακόμα δρόμο για να φτιάξει την εικόνα του.
Η μικρή κεφ/ση κακή και σήμερα- Τ0 900 που έγραψα χτές είναι πιά σημείο αναφοράς.
Το απέδειξε και σήμερα με το υψηλό 899 και τις ρευστοποιήσεις , που ακολούθησαν.
Το λαμβάνουμε σοβαρά υπ ' όψιν για τις κινήσεις μας στα μικρά χαρτιά.
Αυτά σαν γενικό σχόλιο με περιληπτικές αλλά σημαντικές αναλύσεις σε μετοχές σηματωρούς σε δείκτες και στη μικρή κεφ/ση.
Σε ότι αφορά τον εικοσάρη όπως περιγράφω το κερί στην αρχή του σχολίου είναι για short term reverse candle.
Δηλαδή αφού περάσει το χτεσινό υψηλό των 2532 , θα αρχίσουμε να βλέπουμε θετικά το κύμα και να μετράμε , που μπορεί να φτάσει και απο ποιό σημείο και μετά θα θεωρήσουμε πώς έχει κάνει break.
όπως είναι τώρα τα 2540 και 2570 είναι τα critical points.
Έτσι τα έχω και στο διάγραμμα σήμερα και κάθε γύρισμα απο αυτά και καθοδική διάσπαση του 2530 και του 62% απο το σημείο που θα γυρίσει , θα είναι σημάδι πως το b'' έχει τελειώσει και πάμε για το c''.
Είναι πιο απλά απο όσο τα γράφω απεικονισμένα στο διάγραμμα.
Καλή αυριανή.
US Dollar Strengthens as Bonds Fall
By John Lee
============
U.S.10-year Treasury bond prices fell today, on expectations that Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech later this week will lower expectations for a rate-cut this year. Bonds shot up in June after the Fed ended its rate-tightening cycle on slowing growth and moderating inflation. Many investors speculated that the Fed would be forced to cut rates by March to deal with a slowing economy. However, a string of positive, turn-around reports have pushed bond prices lower since early December. Bond prices usually rise on economic weakness and fall on strength, so traders are viewing these reports as a positive factor for the U.S. economy. After a number of hawkish comments from Fed Presidents last week, most investors expect Bernanke's thoughts to echo hawkish sentiment, with a sharp eye out to keep a lid on inflation.
The yen rose off of record lows against the euro, while the dollar pushed higher against both the euro and the yen. The G-7 committee this weekend warned against one-sided trades against the yen, which helped to push the yen off record lows against the European currency. The dollar surged on expectations of hawkish comments from Bernanke later in the week. The international currency market favors currencies backed by inflationary, positive-growth economy, which puts Europe in the best light. Japan has struggled to produce any consistently positive numbers, which has led to record lows and political warnings by the G-7 currency against major yen weakness. The U.S. economy slumped during the second half of 2006, which led to yearly lows against the euro, but recent reports have helped to boost the dollar.
Crude oil futures fell over 3%, after Saudi Arabia told Asian refineries to expect a larger shipment of oil next month than what was previously expected. The delivery jump hints at higher-than-expected levels of Saudi reserves, which sent prices lower. OPEC also signaled that no additional rate cuts are on the table, which helped to push prices lower. Crude fell more than 30% from record July highs, before bouncing back in the last few weeks on cold weather and greater demand from the U.S. The U.S. announced plans to double its strategic oil reserve over the next decade, which would take a large amount of crude off the market immediately. Natural gas futures fell around 7% on high supply levels and forecasts of warm weather in the U.S.
Gold futures fell around 0.7% on dollar strength today. Gold usually trades inversely to the dollar and with oil, which is exactly what happened during today's session. Strength in the dollar led to gold selling, as traders favored the U.S. currency over the metal. Declining crude prices also might have factored into gold weakness, as traders sold gold in-line with falling oil prices. Traders use gold as a safe-haven in the face of dollar weakness and rising oil prices. Copper prices fell nearly 2% on high supply levels around the world.
Grain prices fell across the board. Corn fell nearly 0.5%. Soybeans fell 0.4% on favorable weather conditions in South America, and wheat fell over 1% on good farming weather in the U.S.
Economic News
No major economic news to report for the U.S. today.
============
U.S.10-year Treasury bond prices fell today, on expectations that Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech later this week will lower expectations for a rate-cut this year. Bonds shot up in June after the Fed ended its rate-tightening cycle on slowing growth and moderating inflation. Many investors speculated that the Fed would be forced to cut rates by March to deal with a slowing economy. However, a string of positive, turn-around reports have pushed bond prices lower since early December. Bond prices usually rise on economic weakness and fall on strength, so traders are viewing these reports as a positive factor for the U.S. economy. After a number of hawkish comments from Fed Presidents last week, most investors expect Bernanke's thoughts to echo hawkish sentiment, with a sharp eye out to keep a lid on inflation.
The yen rose off of record lows against the euro, while the dollar pushed higher against both the euro and the yen. The G-7 committee this weekend warned against one-sided trades against the yen, which helped to push the yen off record lows against the European currency. The dollar surged on expectations of hawkish comments from Bernanke later in the week. The international currency market favors currencies backed by inflationary, positive-growth economy, which puts Europe in the best light. Japan has struggled to produce any consistently positive numbers, which has led to record lows and political warnings by the G-7 currency against major yen weakness. The U.S. economy slumped during the second half of 2006, which led to yearly lows against the euro, but recent reports have helped to boost the dollar.
Crude oil futures fell over 3%, after Saudi Arabia told Asian refineries to expect a larger shipment of oil next month than what was previously expected. The delivery jump hints at higher-than-expected levels of Saudi reserves, which sent prices lower. OPEC also signaled that no additional rate cuts are on the table, which helped to push prices lower. Crude fell more than 30% from record July highs, before bouncing back in the last few weeks on cold weather and greater demand from the U.S. The U.S. announced plans to double its strategic oil reserve over the next decade, which would take a large amount of crude off the market immediately. Natural gas futures fell around 7% on high supply levels and forecasts of warm weather in the U.S.
Gold futures fell around 0.7% on dollar strength today. Gold usually trades inversely to the dollar and with oil, which is exactly what happened during today's session. Strength in the dollar led to gold selling, as traders favored the U.S. currency over the metal. Declining crude prices also might have factored into gold weakness, as traders sold gold in-line with falling oil prices. Traders use gold as a safe-haven in the face of dollar weakness and rising oil prices. Copper prices fell nearly 2% on high supply levels around the world.
Grain prices fell across the board. Corn fell nearly 0.5%. Soybeans fell 0.4% on favorable weather conditions in South America, and wheat fell over 1% on good farming weather in the U.S.
Economic News
No major economic news to report for the U.S. today.
EURUSD DAILY CHART UPDATE
Η Ισοτιμία ευρώ έναντι δολλαρίου δεν μας επιφύλασε καμμιά έκπληξη απο τον τελευταίο της σχολιασμό.
Όταν πρίν 8 μέρες έγραψα για το ανίκητο κερί της 05-01-2007 και την περιοχή 1.3040-1.3050.
Εδώ το σχόλιο:
http://dimigon-analysis.blogspot.com/2007/02/eurusd-daily-chart-update_04.html
Όταν πρίν 8 μέρες έγραψα για το ανίκητο κερί της 05-01-2007 και την περιοχή 1.3040-1.3050.
Εδώ το σχόλιο:
http://dimigon-analysis.blogspot.com/2007/02/eurusd-daily-chart-update_04.html
Πράγματι το μόνο που έκανε ήταν να πάει απο την κλασσική περιοχή στήριξης του τελευταίου μήνα γύρω απο το 1.2920 στην αντίστοιχη του 1.3040-1.3050.
Νομίζω πώς αυτή τη φορά και μόλις διασπάσει το 1.2900 θα βρεί πρώτη στήριξη στο 1.2690.
=======
Πιέστε στο διάγραμμα για μεγένθυση.
Δευτέρα, Φεβρουαρίου 12, 2007
Ftse-20 Analysis
Press chart to Enlarge.===========
Μιά γρήγορα και οξεία όσο και αναμενόμενη διόρθωση για τον δείκτη της μεγάλης κεφ/σης και για το σύνολο της αγοράς γενικά.
Απο την κορυφή των 2615.
Την Παρασκευή και αφού την προηγούμενη μέρα πιάστηκε το range 2565/85 ζητήθηκε η αγορά να '' πηδήξει '' πάνω απο το 2565 για να έχει κάποιες προοπτικές ανοδικής αντίδρασης.
Δεν τα κατάφερε και μόνο με υψηλό 2563 ''κάθησε'' στην στήριξη των 2540 , την οποία εγκατέλειψε με καθοδικό χάσμα σήμερα.
Στην διόρθωση πρωτοστατεί ο Δείκτης των Τραπεζών και ο ανθεκτικός μέχρι την Παρασκευή μικρός δείκτης των 80 εταιρειών εγκατέλειψε και αυτός την μάχη σήμερα.
Ο μικρός δείκτης θέλει προσοχή μετά την σημερινή συνεδρίαση γιατί όσο είναι τώρα κάτω απο τις 900 μονάδες θα στοχεύει στις 835/40.
Σχετικά ενθαρρυντικό για αντίδραση το γεγονός πώς η ΕΤΕ κράτησε το 38.50 στο κλείσιμο και πως η ALPHA 'εχει ακόμα να στηριχτεί στο 23.68 και 23.50.
Πάντως ο εικοσάρης όπως θα δείτε και στο σημερινό ημερήσιο διάγραμμα με την θεωρία των Boxes οφείλει να '' φάει '' όλο το σημερινό κερί για να δημιουργήσει νέα ανοδική μορφοσειρά.
Διορθώνει ευτυχώς ακόμα το κύμα απο το 2289.50 και βρήκε σήμερα στο 38.2 και στο χάσμα με το χαμηλό του 2490 περίπου.
Νομίζω πώ θα κινηθεί στο range 2522-2462 και θα δείξει τις περαιτέρω διαθέσεις του μετά την Παρασκευή και με κάποιο σχηματισμό συγκέντρωσης.
Ομοιάζει κατά τι η κίνηση με αυτήν του περσινού Φλεβάρη σαν οξύτητα και ταχύτητα και κρατώντας τις μνημονευθείσες προϋποθέσεις και τεχνικούς παραμέτρους του διαγράμματος , μπορούμε να σε λίγες συνεδριάσεις να μιλάμε για νέα υψηλά.
Μέχρι τότε όμως και με τέτοιο 80άρη κάτω απο το 900 είναι καλά να είμαστε κουμπωμένοι και καχύποπτοι στα άσπρα-μαύρα και κάθε άλλου χρώματος δημοσιεύματα.
Καλή αυριανή.
Σάββατο, Φεβρουαρίου 10, 2007
Ftse-20 Analysis
Ποστάρω μόνο το ημερήσιο διάγραμμα του εικοσάρη και θα προσθέσω το σχόλιό του Κυριακή βράδυ.Πατήστε το διάγραμμα να μεγαλώσει.
Καλό Σ/Κ.
Παρασκευή, Φεβρουαρίου 09, 2007
Ftse-20 Analysis
Στον εικοσάρη λοιπόν είχαμε την πετυχημένη πρόβλεψη αυτής της πρώτης διορθωτικής ακολουθίας απο το 2615 σαν Α .
Απο κεί έδωσα μέχρι 2565 και απο αυτό react στο 2585.
Αυτά γίνανε στην ακρίβεια.
Το πέμπτο κυμματάκι αυτού του πρώτου μέρους πρέπει να τέλειωσε στο 2555.
Αυτό θα αποδειχτεί αν με το σημερινό άνοιγμα ο εικοσάρης ''πηδήξει'' πάνω απο το 2565.
Με αυτή τη συνθήκη θα έχει αρχίσει το Β σκέλος το διορθωτικό του Α , το οποίο μπορεί να φτάσει αρμονικά στο 2594 η κοντά στο 2600 και να τεστάρει και την μαύρη διασπασθείσα γραμμή.
Χρονικά μπορεί να πάρει και την Δευτέρα.
Μετά πάλι θα ακολουθήσει το τρίτο διορθωτικό μέρος στα χαμηλά μας και λίγο κάτω απο αυτά στο 2540.
Πατήστε στο γράφημα να μεγαλώσει.
Είναι hourly.
Dax Analysis
Το b που πρόβλεψα χτές πώς έχει αρχίσει απο το ψηλό της Τετάρτης επιβεβαιώθηκε με την χτεσινή διόρθωση.Στο 6850 ο Dax πρέπει να έχει κάνει ένα απο τα τρία μέρη αυτής της διορθωτικής ακολουθίας Α.
Όπως έχω βάλει στο σημερινό γράφημα , αναμένεται το δεύτερο σκέλος με την ανοδική αντίδραση Β και η επίσκεψη ξανά στα χτεσινά χαμηλά και λίγο κάτω απο αυτά.
Η περιοχή γύρω απο το 6910 είναι ιδανικό retrc για Β αλλά και ένα pull back στην διασπασμένη ii'''-iv''' ο Dax το συνηθίζει.
Χρονικά αυτός ο συνδυασμός μπορεί να διαρκέσει το μισό του χρόνου , που χρειάστηκε για να γίνει το πρώτο μέρος μέχρι το 6924.
Δηλαδή 3-1/2 μέρες.
Με το A-B-C θα διαμορφωθεί ενα πρώτο μέρος W''' Και μετά το X'''.
Τρίτο μέρος για να τελειώσει το b μας με το Y'' για να μπορέσει ο Dax να πάει στο c και στα νέα υψηλά.
Το χάσμα παραμένει ανοιχτό και το 6775 το κύριο κοντινό MoB.
Καλά trades.
Πιέζετε στο γράφημα και μεγαλώνει , γιατί μιά εικόνα χίλιες λέξεις...:-)
Πέμπτη, Φεβρουαρίου 08, 2007
Dax Analysis
Το διορθωτικό b ενδέχεται να έχει ξεκινήσει απο το σημερινό υψηλό.Το v''' μπορεί να επεκταθεί και στις επόμενες ext's 6932 κ.λ.π αλλά δεν κρίνεται πολύ πιθανό απο άλλους παράγοντες.
Η περιοχή γύρω απο 6920 που ανέφερα χτές κράτησε σήμερα στην άνοδο και το σημείο 6890 έδρασε σαν στήριξη την στιγμή της αναφοράς του.
Η μιά τακτική να υπολογίζουμε τα υψηλά είναι αυτή των 6920-6932 και η άλλη να πάρουμε σήμα απο διασπάσεις.
Κύρια του 6888 και πιό κύρια της γραμμής ii-iv που φαίνεται στο διάγραμμα.
Σε αυτή την περίπτωση το διορθωτικό b θα έχει ξεκινήσει με μεγαλύτερες πιθανότητες και σε πρώτη φάση το 6870 θα κληθεί σαν υπερασπιστής.
Αλλά η περιοχή του χάσματος είναι attractor ( έλξη).
Πιέστε στο διάγραμμα να μεγαλώσει.
4 Rules to Time the Market Using the TRIN
The SPY is trading above its 200-day MA (not shown). Buy the SPY on the close 12/22/06, exit on 12/27/06 when the SPY closes above its 5-day MA (blue line).
The TRIN closes above 1.0 three consecutive days on 12/22/06.
The SPY is trading above its 200-day MA (not shown). Buy the SPY on the close 11/28/06, exit the next day when the SPY closes above its 5-day MA (blue line).
The TRIN closes above 1.0 three consecutive days on 11/28/06
Συζητήσαμε στο Trading Coffee μεταξύ άλλων για breadth Indicators.Να ένα σημαντικό άρθρο.
============
By Ashton Dorkins & Larry Connors
The TRIN is a very popular indicator published in the Wall Street Journal, Investors Business Daily, Barron's, and by a number of websites. Considering just how popular it is, we find it surprising that there are very few statistical studies to show whether it actually works or not, and how to use the TRIN effectively.
The most common interpretation of how to use the TRIN suggests a reading below 1.0 is bullish and a reading above 1.0 is bearish. Our own research into how to use the TRIN has shown it to be a very useful indicator but it also revealed that using it in this way simply doesn't work.
We have built a number of successful trading systems that quantified different ways of using the TRIN.
We have built a number of successful trading systems that quantified different ways of using the TRIN.
In this article we're going to teach you a quantified trading strategy for use with the SPY's (S&P 500 Depositary Receipts), E-mini (S&P 500), options, and other vehicles you use to trade the overall direction of the market. But, before we get to the strategy, here's some background on the TRIN and how it's calculated...
What is the TRIN?
The TRIN was developed by Richard Arms in the 1970's and is sometimes referred to as the Arms Index. It calculates the relationship of volume in advancing issues to volume in declining issues, with the basic concept being that in a rising market we want to see more volume in advancing issues than declining issues (the opposite being true of a declining market).
Formula is at the head of the article.
===============What is the TRIN?
The TRIN was developed by Richard Arms in the 1970's and is sometimes referred to as the Arms Index. It calculates the relationship of volume in advancing issues to volume in declining issues, with the basic concept being that in a rising market we want to see more volume in advancing issues than declining issues (the opposite being true of a declining market).
Formula is at the head of the article.
A ratio of 1 means the market is in equilibrium; above 1 indicates more volume in declining stocks; and below 1 indicates more volume in advancing stocks.
A Quantified Way of Using the TRIN
There are numerous ways to use the TRIN to help time your trades for the SPY's, E-mini's, options, etc. Here's one simple strategy which you can apply to your trading immediately.
The SPY's (SPY) are above the 200-day simple moving average.
The TRIN closes above 1.0 three consecutive days.
On the day this happens, buy the market on the close.
Exit when the SPY's close above their 5-day simple moving average.
Since the launch of the E-minis in September 1997, this has happened 74 times. 72% of the time, the market closed higher using the above rules. To put this in perspective, the market has closed higher five days later (from every trading day) 57% of the time when it's been above the 200-day MA. By waiting for the TRIN to close three days in a row above 1.0, your edge jumps to 72%, a large improvement. The average hold for these signals has been less than five days.
The drawback to the above is that it has only signaled 74 times and been in the market about 300 total days. But, you take this one method, and start combining it with dozens of other methods, and you start seeing the makings of a market timing methodology that can guide you on a day to day basis.
A Quantified Way of Using the TRIN
There are numerous ways to use the TRIN to help time your trades for the SPY's, E-mini's, options, etc. Here's one simple strategy which you can apply to your trading immediately.
The SPY's (SPY) are above the 200-day simple moving average.
The TRIN closes above 1.0 three consecutive days.
On the day this happens, buy the market on the close.
Exit when the SPY's close above their 5-day simple moving average.
Since the launch of the E-minis in September 1997, this has happened 74 times. 72% of the time, the market closed higher using the above rules. To put this in perspective, the market has closed higher five days later (from every trading day) 57% of the time when it's been above the 200-day MA. By waiting for the TRIN to close three days in a row above 1.0, your edge jumps to 72%, a large improvement. The average hold for these signals has been less than five days.
The drawback to the above is that it has only signaled 74 times and been in the market about 300 total days. But, you take this one method, and start combining it with dozens of other methods, and you start seeing the makings of a market timing methodology that can guide you on a day to day basis.
Τετάρτη, Φεβρουαρίου 07, 2007
Ftse-20 Σχόλιο
Ο εικοσάρης πραγματοποιεί διόρθωση λίγο πιό πάνω απο το 2611 που είχα δώσει.
Απο το 2615 . ( θεμιτή απόκλιση).
Είναι αυτή την ώρα στην πρώτη κρίσιμη περιοχή του 2565 +-...
Αν την κρατήσει , μπορεί να αντιδράσει μέχρι το 2585.
Διάτρηση του 2565 +-...θα τον φέρει γρήγορα στα παληά λημέρια του 2535/40.
Απο το 2615 . ( θεμιτή απόκλιση).
Είναι αυτή την ώρα στην πρώτη κρίσιμη περιοχή του 2565 +-...
Αν την κρατήσει , μπορεί να αντιδράσει μέχρι το 2585.
Διάτρηση του 2565 +-...θα τον φέρει γρήγορα στα παληά λημέρια του 2535/40.
Dax Analysis
Previous Post :
http://dimigon-analysis.blogspot.com/2007/02/dax-analysis.html
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Press update chart to enlarge.
http://dimigon-analysis.blogspot.com/2007/02/dax-analysis.html
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Press update chart to enlarge.
Μπορεί με το 6907 να έχει κάνει το v''' και το a.
Θα το δείξει σε λίγο αν κάνει κάτω απο την μαύρη ii''-iv'' και λίγο πρίν στο 6890.
Μιά περίεργη συμμετρία
Αύριο 8 Φλεβάρη ο S&P κλείνει 141 μέρες απο το χαμηλό του Ιούλη 2006.
Αυτό το χρονικό διάστημα είναι ακριβώς ίσο με το προηγούμενο ράλλυ Αύγουστος 2004 με Μάρτη 2005.
Και ακόμα ίδιο με εκείνο απο Οκτώβρη 2005 με Μάη 2006.
Το 141 πληροί την παράξενη ισότητα και το 144 μια φίμπο σχέση χρόνου.
Ο Αναλυτής κυμμάτων Hochberg και εμείς αναμένουμε για να δούμε την επιρροή αυτής της παράξενης συμμετρίας , αν συμβεί.
Μπορεί this time to be different.
Ας το παρατηρήσουμε.
Εν τω μεταξύ το συμβόλαιο του S&P Μάρτης μετά την επιτυχή πρόβλεψή μου απο 1412-1455 , έχει δυό φορές στηριχτεί με ενα decline στο 1448.
Αυτής της περιοχής αλώβητης 1444/48 και του υψηλού 1455 υπερβαίνοντος , έχει επόμενο στόχο το 1466 πέριξ.
Αυτό το χρονικό διάστημα είναι ακριβώς ίσο με το προηγούμενο ράλλυ Αύγουστος 2004 με Μάρτη 2005.
Και ακόμα ίδιο με εκείνο απο Οκτώβρη 2005 με Μάη 2006.
Το 141 πληροί την παράξενη ισότητα και το 144 μια φίμπο σχέση χρόνου.
Ο Αναλυτής κυμμάτων Hochberg και εμείς αναμένουμε για να δούμε την επιρροή αυτής της παράξενης συμμετρίας , αν συμβεί.
Μπορεί this time to be different.
Ας το παρατηρήσουμε.
Εν τω μεταξύ το συμβόλαιο του S&P Μάρτης μετά την επιτυχή πρόβλεψή μου απο 1412-1455 , έχει δυό φορές στηριχτεί με ενα decline στο 1448.
Αυτής της περιοχής αλώβητης 1444/48 και του υψηλού 1455 υπερβαίνοντος , έχει επόμενο στόχο το 1466 πέριξ.
Dollar Sags, Gold Rises
By John Lee
U.S. 10-year Treasury bond prices rose today, after unexpected demand for 3-year notes at a $16 billion government auction. Bonds have now risen for 3 straight days, after falling steadily since the beginning of December on a string of positive, turn-around reports from the U.S. Bond prices usually fall on economic strength and rise on weakness. Bond prices shot higher last June, when the Fed initiated a rate-pause to deal with slowing growth and moderating inflation. Bonds rose consistently through the second half of 2006, as weak economic reports continued to roll in. However, since the beginning of December, U.S. economic reports have been characterized by high-growth and a positive spin, which has helped to push bond prices lower.
The dollar fell against both the yen and the euro today, despite comments by Secretary Paulson which hinted that there will be no G-7 committee intervention for the yen. The G-7 committee has hinted that the group will focus time during this week's meeting to focus on yen weakness, to address any significant unbalance in the global currency market. The currency market has favored currencies backed by inflationary, positive-growth economies, which puts the euro at a significant advantage over the yen and dollar. Weak reports from Japan have contributed to the yen reaching record lows against the euro and yearly lows against the dollar. Since December, the U.S. has been producing positive economic numbers, which helped propel the dollar off recent lows against the euro.
Crude oil fell fractionally today, on speculation that U.S. supplies can easily handle any spike in demand stemming from winter weather. Cold weather usually equates to higher energy prices across the board, because more heating oil and natural gas is needed to heat homes. However, supplies are well above the 5-year average, giving investors some wiggle room in case of a demand explosion. A late-arriving winter helped to push prices lower through the first few weeks of January, but prices have been on the rebound lately. Natural gas futures fell about 1% on similar speculations that supplies can easily handle any spike in demand.
Gold futures rose nearly 0.5% today, on expectations that the dollar will weaken in the future, and oil will continue to rise. Gold usually trades inversely to the dollar and with oil. Investors turn to the metal as a safe-haven against dollar weakness; investors are speculating that the dollar weakness which was evident in today's trading will lead to more weakness in the future.
Copper prices rose over 3% today on a decline in stockpiles in the U.S.
Grain prices traded mixed today. Soybeans closed down fractionally. Corn fell over 1%, and wheat fell 1.6%.
Economic News
No major economic news to report for the U.S.
U.S. 10-year Treasury bond prices rose today, after unexpected demand for 3-year notes at a $16 billion government auction. Bonds have now risen for 3 straight days, after falling steadily since the beginning of December on a string of positive, turn-around reports from the U.S. Bond prices usually fall on economic strength and rise on weakness. Bond prices shot higher last June, when the Fed initiated a rate-pause to deal with slowing growth and moderating inflation. Bonds rose consistently through the second half of 2006, as weak economic reports continued to roll in. However, since the beginning of December, U.S. economic reports have been characterized by high-growth and a positive spin, which has helped to push bond prices lower.
The dollar fell against both the yen and the euro today, despite comments by Secretary Paulson which hinted that there will be no G-7 committee intervention for the yen. The G-7 committee has hinted that the group will focus time during this week's meeting to focus on yen weakness, to address any significant unbalance in the global currency market. The currency market has favored currencies backed by inflationary, positive-growth economies, which puts the euro at a significant advantage over the yen and dollar. Weak reports from Japan have contributed to the yen reaching record lows against the euro and yearly lows against the dollar. Since December, the U.S. has been producing positive economic numbers, which helped propel the dollar off recent lows against the euro.
Crude oil fell fractionally today, on speculation that U.S. supplies can easily handle any spike in demand stemming from winter weather. Cold weather usually equates to higher energy prices across the board, because more heating oil and natural gas is needed to heat homes. However, supplies are well above the 5-year average, giving investors some wiggle room in case of a demand explosion. A late-arriving winter helped to push prices lower through the first few weeks of January, but prices have been on the rebound lately. Natural gas futures fell about 1% on similar speculations that supplies can easily handle any spike in demand.
Gold futures rose nearly 0.5% today, on expectations that the dollar will weaken in the future, and oil will continue to rise. Gold usually trades inversely to the dollar and with oil. Investors turn to the metal as a safe-haven against dollar weakness; investors are speculating that the dollar weakness which was evident in today's trading will lead to more weakness in the future.
Copper prices rose over 3% today on a decline in stockpiles in the U.S.
Grain prices traded mixed today. Soybeans closed down fractionally. Corn fell over 1%, and wheat fell 1.6%.
Economic News
No major economic news to report for the U.S.
Τρίτη, Φεβρουαρίου 06, 2007
Dax Analysis
Hourly chart.
Press to enlarge.
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Η βραχυπρόθεσμη σταθεροποίηση επιβεβεβαιώθηκε σήμερα και χρονικά με το 1/3 του χρόνου του μεγάλου iii''' αλλά η οριστική βεβαίωση θα γίνει με το σπάσιμο της μαύρης γραμμής.
Μια πρώτη ένδειξη το σπάσιμο της πορτοκαλλί γραμμής και επιτρεπόμενο στο υπό σχηματισμό iv'''.
Σημερινό χαμηλό 6864 και η ακολουθείσα και σε εξέλιξη αντίδραση σε ενα συνδεόμενο άξονα β/x , ο οποίος ήδη πέτυχε τον 62er αλλά μπορεί να επεκταθεί και χρονικά και σχετικά και με την τιμή περαιτέρω.
Ιδανική απόδειξη πως έχει ξεκινήσει το iv''' να φτάσει και να σπάσει την μαύρη 0-2 γραμμή.
Μπορεί να γίνει και αύριο χωρίς να είναι υποχρεωτικό.
Η ακολουθία πρός το c δεν θα είναι και απαραίτητα το τέλος του iv'''.
Αυτού του είδους οι σχηματισμοί στον dax συνηθίζουν να γίνονται και με τρίτη ακολουθία με συνέπεια όλος ο άξονας του iv'' και πρίν την εκκίνηση πρός το v''' να διαρκέσει ακόμα 1-2 συνεδριάσεις.
Short term MoB 6768.
Το κύμα b μπορεί να λάβει μια πιό σύνθετη μορφή και να φτάσει και στο 70% της επέκτασης , πράγμα που ο dax συνηθίζει.
6785 είναι το ημερήσιο mobilization.
Ftse-20 Big Picture-Daily Chart-Update
Previous Post:http://dimigon-analysis.blogspot.com/2007/02/ftse-20-big-picture-daily-chart.html
Updating Chart:
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Press to enlarge
Δευτέρα, Φεβρουαρίου 05, 2007
ATE update
Previous posts :
http://dimigon-analysis.blogspot.com/search?q=%CE%B1%CF%84%CE%B5
==================
Τεχνικό ζητούμενο στα προηγούμενα διαγράμματα ήταν το διορθωτικό με πρώτο στόχο στο 4.18 και η μετοχή έκανε 4.16.
Απο κεί και πέρα μια νέα συνθήκη ήταν το break των 4.26 .
Έστω και οριακά σήμερα αλλά με ικανοποιητικά επικαλυπτικό της διάσπασης όγκο το χαρτί έκλεισε στα 4.30.
Με κλεισίματα όχι περαιτέρω κάτω του 4.26 και υπέρβαση των υψηλών ο στόχος του C στα 4.80/4.90 μπορεί να επιτευχθεί.
http://dimigon-analysis.blogspot.com/search?q=%CE%B1%CF%84%CE%B5
==================
Τεχνικό ζητούμενο στα προηγούμενα διαγράμματα ήταν το διορθωτικό με πρώτο στόχο στο 4.18 και η μετοχή έκανε 4.16.
Απο κεί και πέρα μια νέα συνθήκη ήταν το break των 4.26 .
Έστω και οριακά σήμερα αλλά με ικανοποιητικά επικαλυπτικό της διάσπασης όγκο το χαρτί έκλεισε στα 4.30.
Με κλεισίματα όχι περαιτέρω κάτω του 4.26 και υπέρβαση των υψηλών ο στόχος του C στα 4.80/4.90 μπορεί να επιτευχθεί.
VOLUME BREAK-UP-Counting-Swing-UPDATE-QUEST
previous posts:
http://dimigon-analysis.blogspot.com/search?q=QUEST
========================
Μετά τον στόχο των 4.60 το χαρτί βεβαίωσε την στήριξη των 4.20 και σήμερα με αυξημένο όγκο και κλείσιμο στα 4.70 , δείχνει να πραγματοποιεί το πολυπόθητο break των 4.50 και να το καθιστά στήριξη.
Αν και είναι σχετικά νωρίς και μεσολαβούν επεκτάσεις και αντιστάσεις , όπως π.χ στο 5.02 και 5.30 , θα πρέπει να αναφέρω πώς τηρουμένης της στήριξης των 4.40/4.50 ( και στόπ λός η μάλλον στόπ πρόφιτ) ανέπαφης , στις επόμενες μέρες και των συνθηκών γενικώς ομαλά τηρουμένων η αξία έχει απώτερο στόχο την τιμή των 6.24 ευρώ.
http://dimigon-analysis.blogspot.com/search?q=QUEST
========================
Μετά τον στόχο των 4.60 το χαρτί βεβαίωσε την στήριξη των 4.20 και σήμερα με αυξημένο όγκο και κλείσιμο στα 4.70 , δείχνει να πραγματοποιεί το πολυπόθητο break των 4.50 και να το καθιστά στήριξη.
Αν και είναι σχετικά νωρίς και μεσολαβούν επεκτάσεις και αντιστάσεις , όπως π.χ στο 5.02 και 5.30 , θα πρέπει να αναφέρω πώς τηρουμένης της στήριξης των 4.40/4.50 ( και στόπ λός η μάλλον στόπ πρόφιτ) ανέπαφης , στις επόμενες μέρες και των συνθηκών γενικώς ομαλά τηρουμένων η αξία έχει απώτερο στόχο την τιμή των 6.24 ευρώ.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY Hourly chart:
Weekly Trend direction: Bearish
Weekly trend reversal level: 122.20
Resistance levels: 121.20, 121.75, 122.20
Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.
Medium term: As our view for long term dollar weakness remains intact, we feel that 122.20 will cap rallies and initiate a drop back towards 105.00. Above 122.20 means that the dollar could rally much higher before a medium term top is formed.
Today: Rallying back to trend line and Fibonacci resistance at 121.40, and dipping down from there. Weekly momentum is bearish, despite last week's new high at 122.20, and we expect the dollar to try and reach down towards 120.00 and probably 118.00 this week and next. Allow for rallies to 121.20 and maybe 121.80 before renewed selling pressure takes this pair below 120.60 towards above-mentioned targets.
Weekly trend reversal level: 122.20
Resistance levels: 121.20, 121.75, 122.20
Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.
Medium term: As our view for long term dollar weakness remains intact, we feel that 122.20 will cap rallies and initiate a drop back towards 105.00. Above 122.20 means that the dollar could rally much higher before a medium term top is formed.
Today: Rallying back to trend line and Fibonacci resistance at 121.40, and dipping down from there. Weekly momentum is bearish, despite last week's new high at 122.20, and we expect the dollar to try and reach down towards 120.00 and probably 118.00 this week and next. Allow for rallies to 121.20 and maybe 121.80 before renewed selling pressure takes this pair below 120.60 towards above-mentioned targets.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD Hourly chart:
Weekly Trend direction: Bearish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9750
Resistance levels: 1.9700, 1.9750
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.
Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast.
Today: Not very attractive to trade, with large swings in both directions and plenty of opportunity for traders to get stopped out. We continue to urge caution when trading cable (read medium term strategy above) and there is no sense in trying to predict the next move at this time. As weekly momentum is bearish, we will go with that for now, and look to sell rallies to between 1.9700 and 1.9750, allowing for another spike high to 1.9820. Watch for signs of topping before entering and keep stops fairly tight.
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9750
Resistance levels: 1.9700, 1.9750
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.
Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast.
Today: Not very attractive to trade, with large swings in both directions and plenty of opportunity for traders to get stopped out. We continue to urge caution when trading cable (read medium term strategy above) and there is no sense in trying to predict the next move at this time. As weekly momentum is bearish, we will go with that for now, and look to sell rallies to between 1.9700 and 1.9750, allowing for another spike high to 1.9820. Watch for signs of topping before entering and keep stops fairly tight.
eur/usd Hourly
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2860
Support levels: 1.2920, 1.2880, 1.2866
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.
Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.
Today: Now entering the 5th week in the same 1.2860 - 1.3060 range. Very good for range traders with a 200 pip corridor, but frustrating for trend traders. Momentum is marginally bullish, and good support lies between 1.2920 and 1.2880, so we expect the euro to attempt to base in this area. As yet, there are no signs of that happening, so we shall have to be patient and watch for a reversal pattern to develop. When that happens, buy at the support zone, targeting 1.3020, and eventually, a break above there towards 1.3100 and 1.3300. A daily close below 1.2800 will postpone all of this and probably lead to a drop to below 1.2700.
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2860
Support levels: 1.2920, 1.2880, 1.2866
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.
Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.
Today: Now entering the 5th week in the same 1.2860 - 1.3060 range. Very good for range traders with a 200 pip corridor, but frustrating for trend traders. Momentum is marginally bullish, and good support lies between 1.2920 and 1.2880, so we expect the euro to attempt to base in this area. As yet, there are no signs of that happening, so we shall have to be patient and watch for a reversal pattern to develop. When that happens, buy at the support zone, targeting 1.3020, and eventually, a break above there towards 1.3100 and 1.3300. A daily close below 1.2800 will postpone all of this and probably lead to a drop to below 1.2700.
SEARCH BLOG
Μια πολύ χρήσιμη επιλογή στο blog βρίσκεται πάνω αριστερά δίπλα απο το κενό λευκό κουτάκι.
Γράφει : Search Blog
Ό,τι βάλετε μέσα όπως μιά λέξη η ένα αριθμό θα σας βγάλει όλα όσα έχουν γραφεί για αυτό.
Π.χ.. Κάντε πείραμα με τον αριθμό 2611 η με την λέξη QUEST η FTSE η ό,τι δήποτε άλλο..
Είναι καλό και γρήγορο το ψάξιμο.
Γράφει : Search Blog
Ό,τι βάλετε μέσα όπως μιά λέξη η ένα αριθμό θα σας βγάλει όλα όσα έχουν γραφεί για αυτό.
Π.χ.. Κάντε πείραμα με τον αριθμό 2611 η με την λέξη QUEST η FTSE η ό,τι δήποτε άλλο..
Είναι καλό και γρήγορο το ψάξιμο.
Κυριακή, Φεβρουαρίου 04, 2007
EURUSD DAILY CHART UPDATE
Περίμενα το ευρωδολλάριο με την πλαγιοανοδική του κίνηση να φτάσει και να σορταριστεί λίγο παραπάνω στο 1.3080/90 όπως είχα γράψει στο προηγούμενο πόστ.
Τελικά οι κινήσεις της ισοτιμίας στις τελευταίες 20 συνεδριάσεις μπορούν να θεματοποιηθούν κάτω απο τον τίτλο '' Ψέμα στο Ψέμα '' αλλά η αλήθεια είναι απλούστερη και άδικα έχει ταλανίσει πλήθος traders μικρού και μεγάλου έως και πολύ μεγάλου βεληνεκούς.
Και βρίσκεται στην σκέψη που θα ξεδιπλώσω αμέσως και η οποία είναι μέν διαγραμματική αλλά όχι καθαρά τεχνική.
Είναι απο κείνες που έχω κατά καιρούς προτρέψει να κάνουμε , δηλαδή να σκύβουμε και να ακούμε όσα το διάγραμμα θέλει να μας πεί .
Και στο σημερινό διάγραμμα πέρα απο μεθόδους , τεχνικές και συστήματα προτρέπω να δείτε κάτι πολύ απλό.
Αυτοί που πούλησαν το ευρώ και δείχνουν μέχρι σήμερα ανίκητοι μετά απο 20 μέρες είναι οι πωλητές της 05-01-2007 στο κερί που έχω σηματοδοτήσει με το βελάκι.
Σε όλες τις μεσολαβείσες 20 συνεδριάσεις οι αγοραστές σεισπειρώθηκαν και ανέκτησαν δυνάμεις για να τους αντιμετωπίσουν με αντεπιθέσεις και ίσως να τους νικήσουν.
Φαίνεται με τους κόκκινους κύκλους πως απο την συσπείρωση του 1.2920 και όσες φορές επιτέθηκαν στον δυνατό πωλητή της 05-01-2007 απέτυχαν ακριβώς στην περιοχή 1.3040-50.
Η οποία τυγχάνει να είναι ακριβώς η μέση αυτού του πωλητικού κεριού.
Τίποτα παραπάνω.
Δεν ξέρω αν κάνουν και άλλη επίθεση η μήπως πλέον κατέθεσαν τα όπλα και αφήσουν και το 1.2920 για να ξεκινήσουν την νέα προσπάθεια απο χαμηλότερα στο 1.2750 η μάλλον αν οι πωλητές της 05-01-2007 αφήσουν και κλείσουν εκεί τις θέσεις τους.
Πάντως το 1.3040/50 έμεινε απόρθητο και το 1.3000 πάλι κοντινό retrc και το ευρώ όσο δεν νικάει αυτό το κερί(05-01-2007) θα σορτάρεται.
Πιέστε στο διάγραμμα να μεγαλώσει.
Παρασκευή, Φεβρουαρίου 02, 2007
Και ο αντίλογος στο BEARISH άρθρο των NYT.
Mud Season on Wall Street
The print edition of today's New York Times offers more food for contrarian thought. In an article appearing on the front page of the business section, Vikas Bajaj tells us that, for the bulls, 2007 may be no walk in the park.
The bull is mired in the mud. The headline reads: "Mud Season at Hand on Wall St." and the sub-head: For the Bulls, Slogging Through 2007 May Be No Walk in the Park".Mr. Bajaj tells us to enjoy the bull market while we can. He explains that [the growth in] corporate profits is starting to slow. Presumably he thinks that slower profit growth means falling stock prices.
I read this a lot on various blogs and lists, but this supposed causal link is complete nonsense.
Today's slowdown in profit growth was priced into the market 6 months ago ! Remember, the stock market is a discounting mechanism.
It is always looking ahead and pricing in the probablilities of events that have yet to occur. It is new and unexpected information that affects stock prices, not information that everyone already has.The apparent slow down we may be seeing now in the growth of corporate profits was already discounted by the drop in stock prices last May, June, and July.
The rally since that time is telling us that corporate profits are likely to grow robustly over the next six months at least.
The next significant drop in the stock market will develop when longer time frame traders and investors begin to seen the first signs of another economic slow down 6 to 9 months in the future.
Now let's step back a bit and consider the "meta-message" of this article.
Remember, the Main Stream Media are in the business of telling people what they want to hear.
This story says in effect: "Sure you missed the rally but, don't worry, the bulls won't have much fun either this year".
This message will make people who are outright bearish or still way underinvested feel better.
Well, this must be a pretty substantial part of the investing public since the Times thinks it its readers will like this story. (Contrary to its erroneous self-perception, the New York Times never "speaks truth to power", i.e. to its readers.)
This leads me to conclude that this bull market may well have more staying power than even I have predicted. And, if prices do drop 20% or so later this year as I currently expect, the resulting low will show powerful bearish sentiment that will propel a new bull market that could then easily double the averages in 2 years.
The print edition of today's New York Times offers more food for contrarian thought. In an article appearing on the front page of the business section, Vikas Bajaj tells us that, for the bulls, 2007 may be no walk in the park.
The bull is mired in the mud. The headline reads: "Mud Season at Hand on Wall St." and the sub-head: For the Bulls, Slogging Through 2007 May Be No Walk in the Park".Mr. Bajaj tells us to enjoy the bull market while we can. He explains that [the growth in] corporate profits is starting to slow. Presumably he thinks that slower profit growth means falling stock prices.
I read this a lot on various blogs and lists, but this supposed causal link is complete nonsense.
Today's slowdown in profit growth was priced into the market 6 months ago ! Remember, the stock market is a discounting mechanism.
It is always looking ahead and pricing in the probablilities of events that have yet to occur. It is new and unexpected information that affects stock prices, not information that everyone already has.The apparent slow down we may be seeing now in the growth of corporate profits was already discounted by the drop in stock prices last May, June, and July.
The rally since that time is telling us that corporate profits are likely to grow robustly over the next six months at least.
The next significant drop in the stock market will develop when longer time frame traders and investors begin to seen the first signs of another economic slow down 6 to 9 months in the future.
Now let's step back a bit and consider the "meta-message" of this article.
Remember, the Main Stream Media are in the business of telling people what they want to hear.
This story says in effect: "Sure you missed the rally but, don't worry, the bulls won't have much fun either this year".
This message will make people who are outright bearish or still way underinvested feel better.
Well, this must be a pretty substantial part of the investing public since the Times thinks it its readers will like this story. (Contrary to its erroneous self-perception, the New York Times never "speaks truth to power", i.e. to its readers.)
This leads me to conclude that this bull market may well have more staying power than even I have predicted. And, if prices do drop 20% or so later this year as I currently expect, the resulting low will show powerful bearish sentiment that will propel a new bull market that could then easily double the averages in 2 years.
What Could Bog Down the Bull
πατάτε στο λίνκ απο πάνω για να διαβάσετε το ανήσυχο άρθρο των NYT...
Απο την άλλη δεν είναι η πρώτη φορά , που μεγάλα οικονομικά παγκοσμίου φήμης έντυπα κρούουν κώδωνες κινδύνου.
Οι αγορές τους έχουν μέχρι τώρα αγνοήσει.
Τα παραπάνω εξώφυλλα αποδεικνύουν του λόγου το αληθές και είναι απο περυσινές και προπέρσινες εκδόσεις.
Bonds and Oil Head Lower
By John Lee
U.S. 10-year Treasury bond prices fell today after a private report showed an unexpected rise in existing-home sales in December, and the ISM report numbers contracted. Yesterday the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and focused the announcement wording on U.S. economic stability and moderating inflation. Bonds continued to trend lower today, on the inflationary housing report, after spiking yesterday on Fed news. Bonds shot higher last June, when the Fed initiated a rate-pause on the grounds of slowing growth and moderating inflation. However, a string of turn-around, positive-growth reports, including today's housing numbers, have forced investors to cancel bets that the Fed will cut rates by March. Investors were speculating that a slowing U.S. economy would necessitate the cuts, but recent reports have pointed to rising growth and strength. Bond prices usually fall on strength and rise on weakness.
The dollar closed almost unchanged against both the euro and the yen, bouncing back from early losses against the yen. After a weak manufacturing report from the U.S., the yen gained on the dollar, but positive housing numbers helped push the dollar back to flat on the day. Traders speculated that the monthly employment report due out tomorrow will show that the jobless rate remained close to a 5-year low. The international housing market has favored currencies backed by hot, inflationary economy. Weakness in Japan has led to rumors of political intervention, in the form of the G-7 conference next week. Europe has been able to produce consistently positive reports, which has propelled the euro to recent record highs against the yen and yearly highs against the dollar. The dollar has been fighting off the remnants of a sluggish second half of 2006, and is being boosted on a string of turn-around reports since early December.
Crude oil fell 1.4% today, after an Energy Department report showed that supplies fell less than expected last week. Crude oil has been rising since mid-January, after falling 34% from record highs in July. Crude fell dramatically through the second half of 2006, on high supplies in the U.S., and a late-arriving winter. Energy prices across the board usually rise during cold weather, but the cold did not settle in until late in the season this year. OPEC has implemented a global production cut of nearly 2 million barrels a day, and has called for more if prices do not stabilize. U.S. plans to double its strategic reserve are helping to boost prices, as more consumption by the U.S. equals less global supply. Natural gas fell about 2% on high supply levels.
Gold rose just under 1% today, on speculation that the commodity market as a whole is on the rebound. Gold usually moves inversely to the dollar and with oil, but neither happened today. Despite crude's fall, investors across the board are looking for oil to climb higher through the year, which will push gold's price higher as well. Today's gold action was more focused on the long-term future of commodity prices, rather than just daily price action volatility. Copper prices fell over 2.5% today.
Grains traded mixed today. Corn fell about 1.6%, wheat fell around 1.4% while soybeans rose fractionally.
Economic News
The ISM index fell to 49.3, the lowest since April 2003.
U.S. 10-year Treasury bond prices fell today after a private report showed an unexpected rise in existing-home sales in December, and the ISM report numbers contracted. Yesterday the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and focused the announcement wording on U.S. economic stability and moderating inflation. Bonds continued to trend lower today, on the inflationary housing report, after spiking yesterday on Fed news. Bonds shot higher last June, when the Fed initiated a rate-pause on the grounds of slowing growth and moderating inflation. However, a string of turn-around, positive-growth reports, including today's housing numbers, have forced investors to cancel bets that the Fed will cut rates by March. Investors were speculating that a slowing U.S. economy would necessitate the cuts, but recent reports have pointed to rising growth and strength. Bond prices usually fall on strength and rise on weakness.
The dollar closed almost unchanged against both the euro and the yen, bouncing back from early losses against the yen. After a weak manufacturing report from the U.S., the yen gained on the dollar, but positive housing numbers helped push the dollar back to flat on the day. Traders speculated that the monthly employment report due out tomorrow will show that the jobless rate remained close to a 5-year low. The international housing market has favored currencies backed by hot, inflationary economy. Weakness in Japan has led to rumors of political intervention, in the form of the G-7 conference next week. Europe has been able to produce consistently positive reports, which has propelled the euro to recent record highs against the yen and yearly highs against the dollar. The dollar has been fighting off the remnants of a sluggish second half of 2006, and is being boosted on a string of turn-around reports since early December.
Crude oil fell 1.4% today, after an Energy Department report showed that supplies fell less than expected last week. Crude oil has been rising since mid-January, after falling 34% from record highs in July. Crude fell dramatically through the second half of 2006, on high supplies in the U.S., and a late-arriving winter. Energy prices across the board usually rise during cold weather, but the cold did not settle in until late in the season this year. OPEC has implemented a global production cut of nearly 2 million barrels a day, and has called for more if prices do not stabilize. U.S. plans to double its strategic reserve are helping to boost prices, as more consumption by the U.S. equals less global supply. Natural gas fell about 2% on high supply levels.
Gold rose just under 1% today, on speculation that the commodity market as a whole is on the rebound. Gold usually moves inversely to the dollar and with oil, but neither happened today. Despite crude's fall, investors across the board are looking for oil to climb higher through the year, which will push gold's price higher as well. Today's gold action was more focused on the long-term future of commodity prices, rather than just daily price action volatility. Copper prices fell over 2.5% today.
Grains traded mixed today. Corn fell about 1.6%, wheat fell around 1.4% while soybeans rose fractionally.
Economic News
The ISM index fell to 49.3, the lowest since April 2003.
Ftse-20 Big Picture-Daily Chart
Η μεγάλη εικόνα του 20άρη απο τα χαμηλά του καλοκαιριού. Οι εσωτερικές γραμμές 2-4 και 1-3 ( πράσινου χρώματος) δείχνουν αρκετά αρμονικές και στην κλίση τους και στον παραλληλισμό τους και με κάνουν θεωρήσω αυτή τη μεγάλη μέτρηση και πάλι πρωτεύουσα.
Εν προκειμένω και μετά απο αυτή τη παραδοχή βρισκόμαστε στην αναζήτηση του τέλους του 5 και την αρχή μιας συνολικής διόρθωσης απο τα χαμηλά του καλοκαιριού.
Όπως φαίνονται και στο σημερινό διάγραμμα τα σημεία μας κλειδιά είναι :
1831.75-2028-1910-2404-2289.50 και μετά την διάσπαση του 2404 ο αριθμός που ζητάμε για να τοποθετήσουμε το 5.
Μερικές τεχνικές έχουν να κάνουν με την διαφορά 2-3 και άλλες με το άθροισμα
( 0-1) + ( 2-3).
Ό,τι βγαίνει απο αυτούς τους λογ/σμούς προστίθεται στο 4 για να έχουμε τα πιθανά 5 σημεία.
Τα intraday που δίνω μερικές φορές είναι συνδυασμός μικρών και μεγάλων κυμμάτων όπως το 2611 που περιμένω αύριο.
Αυτά όμως που βγαίνουν απο τη μεγάλη εικόνα και απο τις αριθμοποιήσεις , όσων προανέφερα είναι γραμμένα στο σημερινό μας ημερήσιο διάγραμμα και είναι :
2595.50-2718-2783.50
Πατήστε στο διάγραμμα πάνω να μεγεθυνθεί.
Πέμπτη, Φεβρουαρίου 01, 2007
Forth wave breaks-Sample AVE equity
Previous post here :
http://dimigon-analysis.blogspot.com/search?q=ave
Δείχνει να κάνει διάσπαση με περαίωση του 4 , που είχα δείξει στο προηγούμενο πόστ.
Κοντινή στήριξη 5.10 και μετά το 5.32 κοντινή αντίσταση 5.64.
Νέο διάγραμμα :
http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/1338/untitledht0.png
http://dimigon-analysis.blogspot.com/search?q=ave
Δείχνει να κάνει διάσπαση με περαίωση του 4 , που είχα δείξει στο προηγούμενο πόστ.
Κοντινή στήριξη 5.10 και μετά το 5.32 κοντινή αντίσταση 5.64.
Νέο διάγραμμα :
http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/1338/untitledht0.png
S&P March Future
S&P Future March hits target tonight.
As commented in the blog since 1412. ( it didnt trade below since reported to hit stop).
Target was 1455 and trades right now at 1451.75.
Position closes and the value will be revised in time due.
All previous comments to the link below:
http://dimigon-analysis.blogspot.com/search?q=S%26P
As commented in the blog since 1412. ( it didnt trade below since reported to hit stop).
Target was 1455 and trades right now at 1451.75.
Position closes and the value will be revised in time due.
All previous comments to the link below:
http://dimigon-analysis.blogspot.com/search?q=S%26P
EURUSD DAILY CHART UPDATE
Euro has preserved 1.2920 limits closing prices during his last accumullation.
On the other hand after hitting some times 1.2970 and backing to 1.2920 , finally broke the resistance and trades by now over 1.2970 and 1.3000.
Has also tested 1.3050 area.
That means once more points to a reaction for 1.3080/1.3100 and then to 1.3140.
Stopping below 1.2950.
Tonight trades at 1.3020 area.
Personal indicators are bullish.
May be tomorrow significant news retrace it to 1.2980 and then ahead to the other targets upper.
Pls press chart to enlarge.
FTSE-20 -- Intraday 60min chart - Σχόλιο
Ο Εικοσάρης διέσπασε σήμερα το πρωί με ανοδικό χάσμα την τετραήμερη συσσώρευση μεταξύ της στήριξής μας 2535/40 και της αντίστασης 2565/70.
Η τελευταία έχει μετατραπεί σε στήριξη και στόπ λός στα λόνγκ σε τυχόν διάσπασή της.
Μετά την κορυφή του 2590 ο κοντινός στόχος είναι στα 2611.
Πιέστε στο διάγραμμα να μεγαλώσει.
Καλό μήνα με υγεία και κέρδη.
Bonds Rise and the Fed Holds News
By John Lee
Wednesday, Jan 31, 2007
Bonds Rise and the Fed Holds
U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds rose today, after the Fed kept rates unchanged at 5.25%. Traders fully expected the central bank to keep rates the same, so most investors were focused on specific wording that the Fed used. A U.S. GDP report came in much better than expected; analysts were looking for 3% growth in Q4, but the GDP report showed a 3.5% increase in growth. Bond prices initially shot higher when the Fed first paused the string of hikes in late June on slowing growth and moderating inflation. Investors began to speculate that the Fed would be forced to cut rates by March, but a string of turn-around reports since December have instilled a burst of confidence in most investors. Prices have been moving steadily lower since December. Bond prices usually fall on economic strength and rise on weakness.
The dollar fell against the yen and the euro today, after comments from Treasury Secretary Paulson suggested that the G-7 committee meeting next week would be focused on yen weakness. The yen has fallen to record lows against the euro, and to yearly lows against the dollar. Consistent low-growth reports from Japan have left the yen at a severe disadvantage against the other two major currencies. The international currency market favors currencies backed by inflationary, high-growth economies, which Europe has proven itself to be. The U.S. has surprised many investors on a string of turn-around reports starting in the beginning of December.
Crude oil rose 2% to close just over $58 a barrel today, on expectations that continued cold weather and economic growth should keep demand steady. Oil fell through the second half of 2006 from record highs, falling as much as 34%. However, recently oil has pushed back on cold weather and U.S. plans to double its strategic oil reserve. High GDP numbers also boosted expectations that high demand in the U.S. should continue into the future. Natural gas fell about 1% on high inventories.
Gold rose just over 1% during today's session, on dollar weakness and rising oil. Gold usually trades inversely to the dollar and with oil, which is exactly what happened today. Investors turn to gold as a safety in the face of dollar weakness and rising energy prices. Weakness against the euro led many investors to buy gold to cover dollar positions. Copper prices rose just over 1% today, on supply concerns stemming from a strike in Chile.
Grains traded mixed today. Corn was flat with a small daily range, soy fell fractionally, and wheat rose nearly 2%.
Economic News
The U.S. Fed kept its benchmark interest rate at 5.25% today.
U.S. GDP grew 3.5% in Q4 2006, more than analysts expected.
Wednesday, Jan 31, 2007
Bonds Rise and the Fed Holds
U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds rose today, after the Fed kept rates unchanged at 5.25%. Traders fully expected the central bank to keep rates the same, so most investors were focused on specific wording that the Fed used. A U.S. GDP report came in much better than expected; analysts were looking for 3% growth in Q4, but the GDP report showed a 3.5% increase in growth. Bond prices initially shot higher when the Fed first paused the string of hikes in late June on slowing growth and moderating inflation. Investors began to speculate that the Fed would be forced to cut rates by March, but a string of turn-around reports since December have instilled a burst of confidence in most investors. Prices have been moving steadily lower since December. Bond prices usually fall on economic strength and rise on weakness.
The dollar fell against the yen and the euro today, after comments from Treasury Secretary Paulson suggested that the G-7 committee meeting next week would be focused on yen weakness. The yen has fallen to record lows against the euro, and to yearly lows against the dollar. Consistent low-growth reports from Japan have left the yen at a severe disadvantage against the other two major currencies. The international currency market favors currencies backed by inflationary, high-growth economies, which Europe has proven itself to be. The U.S. has surprised many investors on a string of turn-around reports starting in the beginning of December.
Crude oil rose 2% to close just over $58 a barrel today, on expectations that continued cold weather and economic growth should keep demand steady. Oil fell through the second half of 2006 from record highs, falling as much as 34%. However, recently oil has pushed back on cold weather and U.S. plans to double its strategic oil reserve. High GDP numbers also boosted expectations that high demand in the U.S. should continue into the future. Natural gas fell about 1% on high inventories.
Gold rose just over 1% during today's session, on dollar weakness and rising oil. Gold usually trades inversely to the dollar and with oil, which is exactly what happened today. Investors turn to gold as a safety in the face of dollar weakness and rising energy prices. Weakness against the euro led many investors to buy gold to cover dollar positions. Copper prices rose just over 1% today, on supply concerns stemming from a strike in Chile.
Grains traded mixed today. Corn was flat with a small daily range, soy fell fractionally, and wheat rose nearly 2%.
Economic News
The U.S. Fed kept its benchmark interest rate at 5.25% today.
U.S. GDP grew 3.5% in Q4 2006, more than analysts expected.
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